Quarterly Newsletters

Dear Clients & Friends,

We hope you are well and are starting to make plans to move forward
with your lives in a safe yet productive and enjoyable manner. We have
much to be thankful for, as our office staff and their families here at
Sterling Financial Group have remained healthy and all are looking to
more normal activities.

Speaking of normalcy, the TSA has screened over a million flyers for the
past 18 days which is the first time we’ve reached those levels in over a year.
Rail volumes are also up approximately 12% from a year ago, and car sales
are running close to 16 million annualized units in the United States,
another bullish sign for the economy. Importantly, consensus 2021 GDP
growth estimates are now expecting the US to grow at 5 or 6% this year, as
companies handily beat their earnings forecasts. All this points to a
robust return to economic expansion, and that has led many to fret that
the economy might be on the verge of over-heating and causing inflation.

In a year when statistics are flying around like an infielder's drill in baseball, we thought it prudent to touch on the confusion often present in common statistics.

While often mistakenly attributed to Mark Twain, one can find the explanation in Wikipedia that ""Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point".

Dear Clients and Friends:

We know that you are dealing with many challenges at this time but please know that we are here to support you in any way that we can. With the recent volatility in the markets, we did hear from several clients who wanted to know “what they should do? ” given the market conditions. With that in mind and our research over the years on behavioral finance we wanted to reiterate our investment approach in the context of some of the more emotional aspects to investing that nearly all of us experience. Above all, take care of your health and be safe!

Happy Fall! For those of us that enjoy college football, this is one of our favorite times of the year, while I know others are wanting summer to stick around longer. Now that the third quarter of 2019 is over, I thought I would recap some of the economic information that we have witnessed so far this year.

There is (almost) always a confusing set of economic data coming out, some indicating economic expansion, while others pointing to a contracting economy. When picked up by news or other market commentators such data is often spun into convenient 40 second sound-bites that fit into a narrative or time slot that the media business is looking to fill. I say "media business" intentionally as we do need to remember that whether one consumes news and information from Facebook or social media, or more traditional television or print media, nearly every outlet is a for-profit model looking to grow their audience, place ads and keep their audience tuned-in.